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관리자 |
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Date |
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2024-06-09 |
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[J of Evolutionary Economics 2024] Economics of technology cycle time and catch-
up by latecomers: Micro-, Meso-, and Macro-Analyses and Implications |
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Lee, Keun (2024), Economics of Technology Cycle Time (TCT) and Catch-Up by Latecomers: Micro-, Meso-, and Macro-Analyses and Implications. Journal of Evolutionary Economics (open access).DOI : 10.1007/s00191-024-00847-9
Abstract
This paper provides an updated and analytical review of the literature involving the analysis of technology cycle time (TCT) of latecomer catch-up at the firm, sectoral, and national levels. On the national level, latecomer economies undergo a detour that most often consists of economic growth through specialization in short-TCT sectors during the catching-up stage, followed by a shift to long-TCT sectors during the post-catching-up stage. Next, this paper discusses the double-edged nature of TCT at the sectoral level, such that short TCT can either be a window of opportunity associated with the quick obsolescence of existing technologies and thus low entry barriers or a further source of difficulty associated with the truncation of learning from existing technologies. Only latecomers with a certain level of absorptive capacity are able to benefit from short TCT as a window of opportunity. Finally, on the level of the firm, this paper discusses the issue of possible convergence in the behaviors of catching-up firms, toward those of mature firms in advanced economies. Among all three levels, the keywords are detour and convergence. Given the entry barriers to long-TCT sectors, latecomers pursue a strategy of detouring to short-TCT sectors. That is, instead of trying to emulate incumbents by entering long-TCT sectors, latecomers take an opposite route. Subsequently, as latecomers enhance their capabilities over time, they shift their specialization from short- to long-TCT sectors, thereby realizing a convergence in terms of behavior and strategy at the firm, sectoral, and national levels.
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