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[2024, Research Policy] Dynamics of Imitation versus Innovation in Technological Leadership Change: Latecomers¡¯ Catch-up Strategies in Diverse Technological Re gimes |
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Sungyong Chang,* Hyunseob Kim, Jaeyong Song, & Keun Lee, 2024, "Dynamics of Imitation versus Innovation in Technological Leadership Change: Latecomers¡¯ Catch-up Strategies in Diverse Technological Regimes," Research Policy. vol 54, 105056 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2024.105056)
We examine the role of latecomers¡¯ resource allocation between innovation and imitation in latecomers¡¯ catch-up under diverse technological regimes. A computational models suggest that one-sided dependency upon either imitation or innovation deters technological leadership change. A full devotion to innovation R&D will lead latecomers to run out of capital soon and be left with no money invest in R&D (i.e., unable to move faster than the incumbent), whereas keeping doing imitation R&D means no opportunity for leapfrogging or moving faster. A right balance between innovation and imitation enables a stable cash inflow needed to make more invest in R&D, leading to moving faster than the incumbent. Thus, at an early stage with low-level technologies, latecomers should focus on imitation; then, they should allocate more R&D resources to innovation at later stage. We also examine the role of several variables expressing the technological regimes in this imitation-innovation mixes. The simulation results show that while low appropriability tends to increase the probability of technological leadership change, it makes imitation a more effective strategy compared to innovation; in addition, while a higher level of cumulativeness tends to reduce the probability of leadership change, it makes imitation a more valuable option because innovation becomes more difficult for latecomers. We also find an inverted U-shaped relationship between the CTT (cycle time of technologies) and the probability of technological leadership change. When the CTT is short, it makes sense for latecomers to allocate more resources to imitation, especially when their technology level is initially low. By contrast, when the initial technology level of the latecomers is relatively high, latecomers should alloate more resources to innovation.
Keywords: latecomers, technological leadership change, imitation, innovation, technological regime, catch-up
JEL Classification: O31, O32
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